Breaking Down the Final 32
By Blake VandeBunte • Aug 24th, 2008 • Category: 2008 seasonAs I write this the Tigers are trailing the Kansas City Royals 4-3 in the top of the sixth inning. For the sake of this post I’m going to assume the Tigers win this game and move to 65-65 (.500) on the season. That 65-65 record adds up to 130 games played and leaves only 32 games remaining.
The Tigers are 10 games out of what it will take to reach the playoffs and barring a huge collapse by multiple times, the Tigers will be watching the postseason on television for the second straight season. So, playoffs aside, how does this season need to wrap up for you to feel good about this team heading into the 2009 season? To help us find a good prediction for how the season will end, here’s the break down on the final 32 games:
- 20 home games
- 12 road games
- 14 games against winning clubs
- 18 games against losing clubs
- 6 games against Cleveland, 6 at home against KC, 1 against the Yankees, 3 against the Angles, 3 in Minnesota, 3 at home against Oakland, 3 in Chicago, 3 in Texas, 4 at home against the Rays.
Looking at these simple numbers it looks like the Tigers schedule down the stretch run should work in their favor. The Tigers will obviously be looking to finish strong and could really beat up on some perennial losing clubs.
The Tigers will close the season with four games at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have one of the best records in baseball. However, since it is the final four games of the season the Rays will probably have their playoff spot locked up. They may be more concentrated on staying healthy and getting their rotation set. That series may not be as tough on the Tigers as it looks now. The same may be true for the home series against the Angels in September. We will see.
As favorable as this schedule appears, 2008 has been a season of disappointment. So I’ll have three predictions:
- If things go well the Tigers will finish: 85-77
- If they go okay the Tigers will finish: 81-81
- If things go badly the Tigers will finish: 77-85
I really do believe that all three of these things are equally likely to happen. I have learned to be surprised by nothing this club does.
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Blake VandeBunte is a posting fiend.
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No win can ever be assumed with the Tigers.
Yeah, they really fell apart today. Good stuff.