The Spot Starters

The All Star break is nearly past.  We had fun watching Josh Hamilton put on a show during the Home Run Derby and that 15 innings marathon of an All Star Game certainly had its moments as well.  However, it’s time to come crashing back to reality.  The Tigers will play 17 of their first 20 games after the break, on the road.  That reality starts on Thursday night in Baltimore.

The club is currently sitting right at the .500 mark.  They are seven games behind the first place White Sox and 5.5 games behind the second place Twins.  Do not underestimate how difficult it is for one club to jump over two.  If the White Sox hit the skids and the Tigers pass them, odds are, they will still trail the Twins by a decent margin.  The Tigers are 8 games out of the Wild Card spot, with five teams in front of them there.  It may take a Central Division title to make it to the playoffs.  This could take some luck.

I’ll stop rambling.  This post centers around seven questions I sent out to my favorite Tiger bloggers for their thoughts on where this team is headed.  The panel is:

• Me.
• Ian of Bless You Boys.
• Kurt of Mack Avenue Tigers.
• Bill from the Detroit Tigers Weblog.
• Lee from Tiger Tales.

These fine gents were kind enough to take some time to provide all of us with some quality answers to some of the biggest questions about this club.  Please enjoy their insight and check out their sites, they are terrific.  Here we go…

QUESTION ONE: Justin Verlander got off to a less-than-Justin-Verlander-like start.  However, he’s turned it on lately and has won five straight decisions.  What does the second half of the season have in store for him?  Also, when will the contract talks start?

• Spot Starters: The numbers are quite telling for Verlander.  Along with the five straight wins, I don’t think he’s give up more than two earned runs in any of last last seven starts.  I think early in the season he felt like he had to carry the team and maybe tried to do a bit too much.  He felt like the team needed a shut out to win a game and probably just pressed a bit and that led to some struggles.  It seems clear he’s back to his old self now.  I don’t think 15 wins for him this season is out of the question, which would be amazing considering the 2-9 start.  As far as his contract goes, I have to imagine he’s going to get whatever he wants.  You just don’t let ace starters walk away.
• Bless You Boys: Verlander seems to have gotten over whatever was bugging him early in the season, whether it was a feel for his off-speed stuff, a lack of confidence in his lineup, or maybe his shoulder was hurting, as Jack Morris theorized.  But he looks dialed in right now, and I don’t see why that can’t continue in the second half.  (Reducing those pitch counts would be nice, though.)  Good question about his contract.  I’d expect that to get done this off-season, with only one year left on the deal he signed when drafted.
• Mack Avenue Tigers:You bring up a good point in contract talks, as you have to think that’s coming up this off season based on the Tigers’ normal timetable and the desire, heck, need, to keep Verlander in Detroit for the bulk of his career.  So I’d guess we might here that this off season unless
  he has it in his head he wants to test the waters.  As for this season, for whatever reason, he and the other starters got off to abysmal starts before settling in. In the second half, I expect vintage Verlander. Nearly every start, the Tigers will be favored to pick up the win and he’ll give them the chance to do so.
• Detroit Tigers Weblog: Verlander will  be effective the rest of the year and by the end he’ll have numbers in the ballpark of what he normally posts.  I think he gets a 4-5 year deal this offseason.  Maybe 5 and 45?
• Tiger Tales: Verlander has a 2.71 ERA and 63/27 K/BB ratio in 73 innings since the middle of May. I think we’ll see more of the same the rest of the way. My projection for his final stats is 215 innings, 3.70 ERA, 165 K and 15 wins assuming he gets decent offensive support. I think we’ll see him signed to a long term deal this winter.

QUESTION TWO: Who fills the fifth starter role for the Tigers if they are competing down the  stretch?  What if they are out of it?

• Spot Starters:  I just cannot see this team making a trade.  If they get hot and are in contention on July 31st then I think they stay with what got them there.  If they are out of it on July 31st then what’s the point of making a trade?  So I think it’ll be a platoon of guys and they’ll stick with the guy that has the hot hand at the time.  I wouldn’t mind seeing Miner start games again.  He had some success there in the past and he makes my heart hurt when he comes in as a reliever.
• Bless You Boys: If they’re still in the race, the Tigers will do what they can to bring in Freddy Garcia (if he’s healthy).  He’s likely an upgrade over whatever else they have, and wouldn’t have to give up anything for him.  If they’re out of it (or until Garcia’s available), Zach Miner will be the fifth starter, with an eye on developing him for next year’s rotation. 
• Mack Avenue Tigers: Oh gosh, I don’t even want to think about the fifth starter problem. I think the Tigers will try to take advantage of scheduling as best they can to avoid the fifth starter problem. I really don’t think Eddie Bonine is the solution. But who is? It’s not Rick Porcello. I’d like to think they won’t rush him; though given the past couple of seasons with guys coming up to the big leagues with minimal professional experience, I can’t say I’d be greatly surprised. Do I think it’s going to happen? No.  Nor do I think they’ll end up with Freddy Garcia or trade. So I’d guess it’s just going to be some guys from the Hens or Seawolves doing their best.
• Detroit Tigers Weblog:It will be some combination of Bonine/Miner/Vasquez/Lambert.  I’d be shocked if Porcello is withthe club even in September.  Workload issues should have him resting at that point and it would be a senseless use of service time, even if it’s just for a month.
• Tiger Tales:I believe Eddie Bonine will be the 5th starter initially but I think Zach Miner will take over fairly soon. I think Miner can be an adequate 5th starter for the last couple of months. They will probably try to make a trade for a veteran starter if they get off to a good start in the second half but I don’t think they have the prospects to make it happen.

QUESTION THREE: What are the Tigers going to do with Gary Sheffield?  Is this a Richie Sexson sort of situation or do the Tigers ride out the contract and hope he gets his swing back?  Obviously, it’s going to look pretty bad if he’s in the line up instead of new fan favorites (just ask my Mom) like Clete Thomas and Matt Joyce.

• Spot Starters:  This is the sort of thing I have no clue about.  As a fan, I’d like to see the guy cut right now.  Obviously he’s never had the most attractive personality, but teams usually put up with it because he was such a dangerous hitter.  He just brings nothing to this club that I can see.  At the same time, they did give him oodles of money, so maybe they just let him figure it out.  I bet they release him at some point in 2009.  That’s a huge guess though.  I will take no credit if I am right.
• Bless You Boys: Leyland has been so loyal to Sheffield that I think he’ll get at least the Baltimore series to prove he’s healthy.  Is that fair?  At this point, sure.  But expressing his concern before the break might be an acknowledgement that he realizes the Tigers are better with Joyce or Thomas in the lineup.  I can’t see the Tigers releasing Sheffield, though.  They’re going to hope he can find his swing again, even if it’s on a part-time basis, and give him the next 6-8 weeks to do it.  A short-term fix will probably be to send Clete back to Toledo.  Is that fair.  Not really.
• Mack Avenue Tigers:What they should do is play him minimally or release him. I say release him because I am weary of his behavior without playing time. But frankly, he doesn’t deserve any playing time. When your DH is not getting on base or driving in runs, you definitely have a problem. He’s hurting the Tigers. It’s not that you greatly think Matt Joyce or Clete Thomas is a huge step up long-run. But they are steps up and can play in the field to give Magglio Ordonez a spell if he needs one.  I just don’t see this Sheffield thing ending well.
• Detroit Tigers Weblog: I don’t see Sheffield getting released this year.  I do see his playing time being reduced until he stops the sucking.  We’ve already seen him dropped all the way to 7th in the lineup and seing him missing at least one game a series is probably the right thing to do.  Because the Tigers aren’t carrying a dedicated back-up catcher, it does give them the room to carry Sheffield on the bench. It’s a nice problem for the Tigers to have to have to try and find at-bats for both Joyce and Thames and Thomas.
• Tiger Tales: I think Sheffield will remain with the team for the rest of the season. He will likely get more time off with Matt Joyce and Marcus Thames picking up most of those at bats. I don’t think he’ll be back next year if he doesn’t hit.

QUESTION FOUR: If the Tigers could have a gimme on a trade that happened this offseason, would they do it?  Which trade would they take back given the choice?

• Spot Starters:Wow, given what we know now, I’d say the Renteria trade might be even worse than the Cabrera/Willis deal.  I think it’s probably that Cabrera is an All Star the majority of his time in Detroit.  However, Renteria will be a Tiger for this season only and he’s been pretty bad this season.  Bad is putting it kindly.  Meanwhile, Jair Jurrjens is 9-4 with Atlanta with a 3.00 ERA, he’s also 22 years old.  The other player we sent off in that deal was Gorkys Hernandez who played in the Futures Game this past Sunday.  I bet the Tigers would take that back if they could.  I’m sure of it.
• Bless You Boys:Oh, I think they’d definitely take back the Edgar Renteria trade.  Between how he’s been playing and the need for a Jair Jurrjens in their rotation, the Tigers wouldn’t make that deal again.  They probably wanted a gimme on that in December, after getting Miguel Cabrera.  I don’t know if they would’ve felt comfortable with Ramon Santiago being the full-time shortstop, but I believe they would be now.  (And maybe with Michael Hollimon backing up.) 
• Mack Avenue Tigers: Which would the team take back? I have to say, none of them, to be honest with you. (Thanks to Leyland I keep using that darn phrase!) I don’t think they seem like the type of folks who is going to look back and second guess. At the time, each move made sense. Only when it didn’t turn out do we second guess it. I don’t think you can do that. It’s not fair. Like the Renteria deal. I think most fans approved of it. Because at the time, the shortstop was no good at defense and needed to be moved and there really weren’t many other options. I don’t think anyone was jumping up and down for joy, but I didn’t read many complains. Looking back now and going “Renteria has cement boots on his feet and Jair Jurrjens is tearing up the National League, that move was stupid” isn’t right, because I didn’t hear a lot of better suggestions at the time.  That said, that’s probably the deal everyone would like to hit the “undo” button on if they knew then what we know now. 
• Detroit Tigers Weblog:Well of course the Renteria trade looks awful at this point so taking that back would be okay.  But I can’t fault them for making the trade.  Fans would have screamed had they entered the season with either Guillen or Santiago as the starting shortstop.
• Tiger Tales:This is an easy one. The Edgar Renteria trade was questionable when it was made and now it’s looking awful. He has been bad offensively and defensively. Meanwhile, Jair Jurrjens is having a strong season for the Braves. The Tigers could really use him right now. I still like the Miguel Cabrera trade and think it’s going to work out really well for the Tigers.

QUESTION FIVE: It’s looking like this will be Todd Jones’ last season closing games for the Tigers with someone new stepping in next season.  How do they get the mystery new guy ready for next season?  Are we going to see Zumaya/Dolsi closing games in August/September?

• Spot Starters: I think I’m probably a bit tougher on Jones than most (except for maybe my Dad) but I just don’t see what’s to like about the guy.  He’s a trainwreck waiting to happen and I would feel about as comfortable with Jason Grilli on the mound.  I think the club should give some of the new guys some cracks at closing this season.  Obviously it takes more than “stuff” to close, you have to be able to handle the pressures that come with the job (I’ll give Todd props for that). 
• Bless You Boys: Leyland is going to do exactly what he said he’d do before the All-Star break: He’ll give some of those save opportunities to Joel Zumaya and Freddy Dolsi.  I know Leyland said the idea was to reduce Jones’ workload, but I think he’s also doing this with an eye toward next season.  The Tigers need to see if either of those guys can handle the role, and if they fall out of the race, we’ll see more of them. 
• Mack Avenue Tigers:I do think think there will be an assessment period where the team is honest with itself and chances, and starts thinking about next year if necessary. But I don’t think we’ll see any sweeping moves like a change in closer. Maybe Todd Jones rests a bit more, doesn’t pitch three days in a row if Zumaya or Dolsiis available for the ninth inning that third night. But honestly, I don’t think it’s going to be anything too obvious. That said, I think Zumaya is the implied 2009 closer and Dolsi the setupman.
• Detroit Tigers Weblog:They get the new guy ready under the guise of resting/pacing Todd Jones.  Jones hasn’t pitched well for a couple weeks now, even by his standards.  Still, he’s only cost the team one game due to some luck and nice timing of his implosions.  I think it will be Zumaya moreso than Dolsi. 
• Tiger Tales:I do think this will be Jones’ last season as closer but I think he’ll keep the role as long as they stay in the race. If they fall out of the race or if Jones implodes, I think they might try Joel Zumaya as the closer. It’s too early to say what will happen next year.

QUESTION SIX: Who sees their performance get turned up a notch after the break?  Who sees their performance decline?

• Spot Starters:  I think we should see Cabrera turn another corner and play some better ball.  As far as pitching goes, it sure seems logical that Zumaya and Rodney should get some control back, making them much better.  I love Matt Joyce, but I just have to imagine that pitchers are going to figure him out a bit as the season progress.  That could lead to dips in average and power, however, I bet he’ll adjust.  Also, I know I said Zumaya could get much better, but his ERA right now is 1.59 and his WHIP is over 2.00.  So his ERA is WAY better than his performance. If he doesn’t get his control back and keep guys off base, he could be in for some really rough outings.
• Bless You Boys:This is probably far too optimistic of me, but I’m going to say Brandon Inge steps it up in the second half.  He knows what his role on the team is now, and knows the starting catcher job is very likely his next season.  There’s no more anxiety about possibly getting traded or bitterness about getting benched, and maybe that helps him relax and just play baseball.  And this is probably too pessimistic, but I have to follow the track record and say Marcus Thames will run out of gas from here on out.  Maybe Leyland’s rotation of outfielders and designated hitters will keep Thames fresh, so he won’t slump like he has the past couple of seasons.  But that also means he might not get the at-bats he needs to stay consistent, either.
• Mack Avenue Tigers:I’ll start with the negative and obvious: Matt Joyce isn’t going to keep that up. If his swing was that good and his power that strong all along, he wouldn’t have been wasting away in Toledo. There will be a book on him sooner than later and the fairy tale will cease. But for now, it’s enjoyable. Honestly, I expect a Marcus Thames slowdown as well. I think Thames is a great story and I really wish he was the real deal. But it just strikes me he can do it for periods of a season, but not for a full one. Pitchingwise, you really have to believe Armando Galarraga’s going to have this baserunner problem bite him in the butt more often than it does. And maybe Kenny Rogers reverts a bit, too.   Who lights up? I feel like Miguel Cabrera puts more pieces together in his head as the year goes on. I think he continues to get stronger. I find it hard to believe Renteria could continue hitting at such a terrible clip, so I’m going to tentatively put him in the “has a better second half” category because I don’t think it’s possible to have much worse of a half. But that’s not a real solid prediction there. I really don’t see a lot of guys stepping up. Several batters and pitchers seem to have caught up to their talent (Maggs, Carlos Guillen, Verlander) in the past month and I see them continuing with that success.
• Detroit Tigers Weblog:Granderson probably hits for a little more extrabase power.  Cabrera hits better.  And Renteria will most certainly hit better.  For one thing he’s been awful.  For another his numbers are worse than his line drive rate indicates meaning he’s been unlucky on top of being bad.  I’d also expect Galarraga and  Santiago to regress some.
• Tiger Tales:Although I don’t like the trade, I think Renteria will pick it up a bit after the break. I also expect Cabrera to get his OPS up over .900 by the end of the season. Most of the Tigers already had their slumps in the first half but I’ll say that one candidate to regress a bit is Armando Galarraga. I don’t think he’ll blow up but I think he has pitched a little over his head so far.

QUESTION SEVEN: How does this season end?  Feel free to speculate on roster moves, win total, playoffs, etc?

• Spot Starters:I think it’s possible they make the playoffs, but it is not likely.  The White Sox are on pace for 93 wins.  To reach 93 wins the Tigers will have to go 46-22 in the second half of the season.  Sure, it’s not a given the Sox will get to 93 wins, but it gives you an idea of how hot the Tigers will have to get.  I think it’s more likely they end up with 84-86 wins and threaten a bit for a spot in the playoffs before falling short.  I think we’ll have to see some major roster moves this winter as we’ll need some replacement parts (shortstop, rotation).
• Bless You Boys:I said 86 wins and a third-place finish on The Detroit Tigers Podcast, so I’d better stick with that - even though I really had to push that prediction through my teeth.  I still don’t think the White Sox and Twins are better, but they don’t have to carry poor starts on their shoulders, either.  Unless the Tigers really go in the tank coming out of the All-Star break, however, I don’t think they’ll wave the white flag in terms of selling off players.  So I believe Detroit will actually try to add some pitching, more likely a starter.  And if the division title gets further out of reach, the Tigers will have one of the most expensive benches in the league, with Renteria and Sheffield getting a lot of time off. 
• Mack Avenue Tigers: The Tigers end the year 84-78. Slightly above .500. But realistically out of the playoff hunt in late August even if they’re mathematically in it. I don’t think they’re buyers at the break. But I don’t feel like they have the kind of talent that is going to tempt them into being sellers either. (Personally I don’t want them to buy unless it’s talent that will help in the next few years.) It should be a pretty quiet final two months. I think we’ll see the typical Triple-A and Double-A shuttle but nothing you’d call exciting coming out of it.
• Detroit Tigers Weblog: It’s too soon to say if the Tigers are buying or selling.  The buying would probably be limited to Freddy Garcia because the pieces aren’t there to get anyone better.  I also would be surprised with any selling.  If they are out of it and some team decides they need a catcher Rodriguez could be moved.  But as a likely Type A free agent it’s whether or not the Tigers can do better in a trade than the 2 draft picks they’d likely receive.  Rogers effectively has a no trade clause because he could always just retire if he didn’t want to be dealt.  I think they end up with 84-85 wins and likely miss the playoffs by about 3-4 games.  Enough to keep it interesting and frustrating at the same time.
• Tiger Tales:Since they were so horrible the first two months and still finished at .500 at the break, I expect that they’ll have a winning record in the second half. I’ll say they’ll finish at 86-76 which won’t be good enough to make the playoffs. They will tease us but I think they dug too deep of a whole early in the season. The White Sox will win the AL Central and they’ll join the Red Sox, Rays and Angels in the playoffs.

If you read this far, congrats, you are hardcore.  I won’t write much more here.  I will be out of town starting tonight and will be back for Friday’s game, probably rockin it at the Bless You Boys gamethread.  Rob will be covering the next couple of days for me.

So, thanks again to all of those who contributed to this, it was fun.