Mid-Season Projections
By Blake VandeBunte • Jul 7th, 2009 • Category: 2009 SeasonWith the season half over, it’s pretty easy to project a players final stats. Here’s the plan: I’ll simply double every players totals and keep the rate statistics the same. Then we can all place guesses on whether guys will get there or not. Sound good?
- Gerald Laird: .241, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 81 OPS+
- Miguel Cabrera: .322, 32 HR, 94 RBI, 137 OPS+
- Placido Polanco: .256, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 38 2B, 80 OPS+
- Adam Everett: .267, 4 HR, 54 RBI, 77 OPS+
- Brandon Inge: .266, 38 HR, 108 RBI, 160 K, 96 R, 123 OPS+
- Curtis Granderson: .255, 36 HR, 30 SB, 142 K, 86 RBI, 107 OPS+
- Magglio Ordonez: .264, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 20 2B, 79 OPS+
- Justin Verlander: 16-8, 3.54 ERA, 218.2 innings, 260 K
- Edwin Jackson: 12-8, 2.59 ERA, 229.1 innings, 186 K
- Rick Porcello: 16-12, 4.14 ERA, 174 innings, 94 K
- Armando Galarraga: 10-14, 5.03 ERA, 186 innings
- Fernando Rodney: 4.25 ERA, 34 SV, 34 SVOPP, 72 innings, 60 K
There’s no way Inge keeps up this pace, right? That’s the most obvious thing here for me. Inge may hit 30 HR this season and he may even get close to the 100 RBI mark, but 38 HR? Not happening. I voted for the guy in this All-Star voting a dozen times or so, but I just don’t think he’s that good.
The other thing that stands out here is Jackson’s projected win total. That guy has caught zero breaks this year. Does he look like a 12 game winner out there? I have to imagine that luck will catch up with him later in the season and he’ll finish with at least 15 wins.
We all know Rodney will blow a save at some point. He’s gasoline half of the time, he’s just been really lucky so far.
Sadly, I think what we’ve seen from Magglio in the first half is roughly what we will see in the second half. He looks like a different player now and not in a good way. I can see him finishing with 10-12 HR, but nothing more than that.
We will almost certainly see a drop in Porcello’s numbers. His innings are getting cut as his performance has tailed off a bit. I think this is a good thing, if he can keep that ERA around 4.00 for the rest of the season he’ll have had a great rookie season.
Any other thoughts? Who will improve in the second half and who will come back down to earth a bit?
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For as bad as Laird has looked at the plate for much of this season, I’ll take those numbers at the end of the year. Given that Ryan will likely get more playing time than Sardinha was getting, I think it will help Laird perform better in the second half and maybe even post better number than these projections.
All good calls, Blake. I’d also put Cabrera in the 35-40 homer range while dropping Granderson to the high 20’s to low 30s in home runs. I think Armando will pitch a bit better, and Porcello will regress slightly, and both will end up with 12 or 13 wins. If Edwin can get to 15, and Verlander can get 15-20, then I like our chances.
Pretty much with you and Travis. You know that Grandy and Inge won’t clobber that many home runs but it’s quite possible Cabrera actualy gets hotter. I also would include Polanco and Thames in the group to pick it up a bit. While Porcello regressing is a pretty solid call. Either way it’s been fun thus far…
I never thought this year at spring training that we could have been in first at the break. We honestly have a decent shot. Thanks to Knapp, E-Jax, Verlander, a decent pen and Inge who continues to make me eat my Cringe chants this spring.
Go Tigs!