What I Would Do
By Blake VandeBunte • Jun 17th, 2009 • Category: 2009 Season, Dontrelle Willis, Magglio Ordonez, Mike Ilitch, Nate Robertson, Rick Porcello, Zach MinerThere has been a bit of chatter about the Tigers lately in the media following Mike Ilitch’s statement that he is ready to spend some money. The Tigers current payroll is right around $115M. Last year it was near the $140M mark, so they have spent less. However, they are also drawing less fans. Anyway, it’s not my money, so what do I care? If Ilitch wants to spend more money and wants to make this team better he should okay the following moves…
- RELEASE DONTRELLE WILLIS: Willis’ time in Detroit can be considered nothing less than a disaster. He has been a train wreck from day one and very seldom gives the Tigers a chance to win ball games. He is 1-6 wit the Tigers with 63 walks in 57.2 innings. His ERA with the Tigers is 8.27, the second worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 55 innings. The other pitchers with him on the top four of that list have thrown a combined 2.1 innings in 2009. The Tigers need to follow the trend and dump the guy.
- RELEASE NATE ROBERTSTON: Every time I see Robertson pitch, it looks like there are about 300 places he would rather be spending his time. I’d be okay if he looked uninterested and pitched reasonably well in mopup situations, but he cannot even do that. No one in baseball has thrown as many innings as Robertson since 2008 and has a worse ERA. He’s as bad as it gets. The Tigers have arguably the two worst pitchers in the Major Leagues.
- RELEASE/TRADE MAGGLIO ORDONEZ: Rod and Mario love to talk about “track records”. They say that Magglio has the track record of a good hitter and that means that he’ll get it going soon. He’ll get back on track. This logic is obviously flawed. Ordonez is 35 and it’s possible that he’s just done. His OPS+ this season is 82, way below league average and that’s just unacceptable from a #3 hitter making $18M a year. Magglio’s contract states that if he starts 135 games this season or gets 540 plate appearances his contract will become guaranteed for 2010, another $18M. If the Tigers can keep those starts and plate appearances low prior to the trade deadline, they might be able to trade him to another contender. This is plan A. If they cannot trade him I really think they should release him. Sure they’ll be sued by the Player’s Union, but the Tigers can just argue that his performance was killing them. They can say they found someone better than him to play RF…
- ADD AN OUTFIELD BAT: If the Tigers are able to get rid of Magglio then they should make a play for a slugging corner outfielder. Brad Hawpe of the Rockies has been mentioned and so has Matt Holliday of the Athletics. Both of these guys would be obvious upgrades over Ordonez, Josh Anderson, Clete Thomas, and Ryan Raburn.
- LIMIT PORCELLO’S INNINGS: Porcello threw 125 innings last season and faced 527 batters. He’s currently on pace to throw about 175 innings and faced 710 batters. These are both relatively low totals, but may be a bit much for a 20-year-old player making the jump from A ball to the big leagues. Porcello will almost certainly get a start skipped around the All-Star break but the Tigers need to find a couple other times to skip his start and rest that young arm. I’m scared that if they get caught up in a playoff race they’ll just keep running the guy out there and he’ll have a 5.89 ERA in 2010.
- ADD A STARTING PITCHER: Armando Galarraga and Dontrelle Willis are killing the Tigers. They rarely win their starts and put a lot of pressure on the other three guys in the rotation. I’m fine with Galarraga staying on as the fifth starter if Leyland refused to move Zach Miner into that role. Starting pitchers can be had for a relatively cheap price around the trade deadline. The Tigers don’t need to trade for an ace, they just need a legitimate #4 type of pitcher. This usually costs a A-ball arm and that would be an acceptable move in my opinion.
Here’s who should be starting for the Tigers down the stretch:
- Curtis Granderson CF
- Placido Polanco 2B
- Matt Holiday/Brad Hawpe/etc. RF
- Miguel Cabrera 1B
- Jeff Larish/Marcus Thames DH
- Brandon Inge 3B
- Gerald Laird C
- Ramon Santiago/Adam Everett SS
- Josh Anderson/Don Kelly/Ryan Raburn/Carlos Guillen LF
Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Edwin Jackson
- Rick Porcello
- Paul Byrd-type of guy through a trade
- Zach Miner
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How about picking up the actual Paul Byrd? Last I checked, he’s still available as a free agent so he wouldn’t cost us anything but a contract. For a suitably low-risk contract, I think this would be a good move. I think Pedro Martinez is still available as well, though I have no idea if he’s healthy. Same with Jim Edmonds. He had a good season last year, and for another low-risk deal, I think they should give him a look.
Also, if the Tigers are unwilling to promote Dusty Ryan, I wouldn’t mind seeing them try for Toby Hall or Javier Valentin, also via free agency.
Must admitt
I like what I am reading….Again!
I would prefer the cheaper Brad Hawpe and it would be awesome if they could add Houston Street to the package as well. I am sure (as we talked about before) we would have to part with Crosby Satterwhite and some other lower chips. However those two would instantly effect us in a positive way. With Street closing we would finaly have a young but proven closer. The pen would also be much stronger as Rodney and Zumaya could resume their usual 7th & 8th inning roles. That would also allow both Lyon and Perry to pitch in no pressure situations for the most part. Dropping Nate must be done….After last night I’m just over him.
If Willis agrees I would send him to Lakeland. Sorry it just increases the value of my season tickets here. I figure why eat the salary when he can entertain me here in sunny Florida. Perhaps he will have more succes against the Snow Crabs, Miracle and Manatees.
I agree a starter is a MUST Blake. Paul Byrd is interesting and probably cheap. I’ve also heard Pedro Martinez chatter due much in part to his WBC showing. Thoughts? I know they better move fast. El Dueke was just signed by Texas and Freddy Garcia by the Chi Sux. I would just prefer a F/A so we don’t depleat our farm system.
And in regards to Porcello
That was the concern that many of us had down here in Florida. Last season when he pitched for us several times he left the game with either a shutout or no hitter in the fifth or sixth. We all understood though it was because his pitch count. Many folks don’t understand the importance of MILB to log innings, develope pitches and strenghten your arm.
Now all of the sudden they are concerned.
My solution of having Miner/Galarraga pitch in his place (or even the hot hand in AAA) would solve the worries. If he were to skip every third start that would save 30 something innings right there. And if you still keep him on his 80-90 pitch count everything should jive.
We have Luke French Brooks Brown Etc all worthy of a spot start
Thoughts?
I think that’s a fine plan. Although, I think he really only needs to skip three starts to be fine. You just don’t want to be in a position where the guy is being put in harms way. If he continues to do what he’s doing now and maintain roughly the same pitch count, I think 150-160 innings would probably be alright. That would include postseason starts. That’s where it gets tricky.
Great points there by Matt. Paul Byrd is a strike-thrower and always has been. I read a quote from a GM or Scout a year back that said, “Paul Byrd could fall out of bed throwing strikes”. He struggled a bit last year, but he’s still probably a better option than Galarraga or Willis.
I agree with everything that was written here so far. I’m not sure I have anything else to add. Great post, Blake.
I guess I will add something about Maggs. It is possible that he could get it going. David Ortiz looked absolutely brutal, yet he is on fire in the month of June. Big Papi might still be done, to be sure, and this could be a last gasp, but maybe Maggs isn’t done. The Tigers do need to make a decision right around the All Star break, though. If he doesn’t get it going shortly before or shortly after the Mid-Summer Classic, then I am with you: they need to dump him, save the money, and get someone else in who can do the job.
Could Wilkin Ramirez be given a shot here, much like Cameron Maybin was given a shot late in ‘07 after the Craig Monroe trade?
Ramirez is an option, however, I think he’s still a bit strikeout prone to be viable option. Just like Maybin was in 2007.
DD doesn’t have this kind of money to waste / play around with …
I have to disagree with you E. Ilitch has given DD the go-ahead to spend money and keep the team in first place.
Good ideas aplenty Blake.
Paul Byrd would be a great addition. I love what he brings to the table for a contending team, especially because he eats so many tough innings. I think the bullpen needs to be addressed some, because now even Joel Zumaya is looking rough. There is no one that I am confidant in 100%, and that is not the way a contending ballclub should roll.
Another thing I would like to see, and it is fairly simple, would be to give Marcus regular at bats. I understand he has a tendency to strikeout and isn’t Tony Gwynn in the “putting ball in play” department, but when you have an offense as anemic as the frickin Tigers right now, his power is needed. If he goes 1-4 with a bomb and three strikouts he is still producing more runs than a few scattered singles and Maggs hitting into a double play - which by the way ranks up with Fernando Rodney’s ineptitude as my new least favorite thing about the Tigers.
-s
One of Ordonez’s 2010 contract guarantee clauses is 1080 plate appearances in 2008-09. He had 623 in 2008 so he only needs 457 this year for the clause to kick in. He has 242 so far.
I’m certainly no expert, but I don’t see grounds for a player’s union suit if he is released. There’s a $3 mill buyout for the 2010 option, which would seem to be the contractually agreed upon cost for releasing him. Not sure why any team would want to trade for Maggs given his current performance, especially if they were going to get stuck with his 2010 (and 2011) contract years. I suppose there is some possibility for a contract renegotiation since his current value is in the dumpers.
The Tigers screwed the pooch big time when they didn’t trade Maggs at the end of last season when he would have been worth something. Funny thing, at the time it was widely reported he was on the block and most Tiger fans were screaming, “NO!”.