Porcello and the Pitch Count
By Blake VandeBunte • May 6th, 2009 • Category: 2009 Season, CC Sabathia, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Jeremy Bonderman, Matt Cain, Rick Ankiel, Rick Porcello, Zack GreinkeThe other day I wrote a bit about how a few young pitchers have done in the big leagues. Rick Porcello stands to be a big part of the Tigers for the 5-10 years and for him to make his mark, he needs to stay healthy. There are certainly things Rick can do personally to stay healthy, but those things are tough for us to see. What’s easy for the fan to check on are items from his performance.
For a long time, innings were the thought to be the best way to keep tabs on a guy and how much work he had done. We can now tell that that is bull-plop. Pure bull-plop. When Justin Verlander goes seven innings he usually needs around 120 pitches. Last night Rick Porcello went seven innings but needed fewer than 90 pitches. While both guys would be credited with seven innings of work, one pitcher needed to do a lot more work and put a lot more stress on their arm.
Being a 20-year-old pitcher in the big leagues is rare. Here’s how some young guys have had their pitch counts handled when they were 20 and younger.
| Player | Year | Age | Pitches/Start | Pitches/Inning | Pitches for Season | High | 100+ |
| Rick Porcello | 2009 | 20 | 84.4 | 14.7 | 422 | 89 | 0 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2008 | 20 | 87.9 | 17.3 | 1846 | 108 | 4 |
| Felix Hernandez | 2005 | 19 | 101.5 | 14.4 | 1218 | 115 | 7 |
| Matt Cain | 2005 | 20 | 101.8 | 15.4 | 713 | 107 | 5 |
| Zack Greinke | 2004 | 20 | 95.1 | 15.7 | 2284 | 109 | 10 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 2003 | 20 | 85.9 | 15.9 | 2405 | 119 | 4 |
| CC Sabathia | 2001 | 20 | 94.9 | 17.4 | 3132 | 125 | 17 |
Mildly interesting, right? Quite often 100 pitches is the kiss of death when you look back on a young guy whose career has not panned out. All of the guys on this list topped 100 pitches with regularity with the exceptions Kershaw and Bonderman (Cain topped the mark 5 times in 7 starts).
We can see that so far Porcello has been exceptionally economic with his pitches. That’s the great part about being a groundball pitcher.
This list features stars like Hernandez and Sabathia, duds like Ankiel and possibly Bonderman, and rising stars like Greinke. It’s probably too soon to judge Kershaw and Cain. Ankiel flamed out due to injuries and an inability to to throw strikes. Bonderman has been derailed by injuries the last two years.
You want my opinion? The Tigers continue to take it easy on Porcello. Keep him right around that 90 pitch mark. They should also continue to skip his spot in the rotation if a day off allows that to happen. He’ll continue to have his peaks and valleys but I think we saw last night what he is capable of doing.
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Good stuff…I was reluctant to support Porcello in the big league rotation. At this point though if they can keep his pitch count down and skip him when they can it would be a great idea.
I also like the idea of keeping his pitch counts around 90 and skipping him in the rotation. My friend and I were talking about pitch counts yesterday. The classic examples of overuse, in my opinion, are Kerry Wood and Mark Prior of 2003. Some of the numbers are staggering, really. Prior averaged something like 113 pitches per game. That’s a lot for a young pitcher no matter how you cut it.
I disagree with Travis. I think Dusty Baker obviously did a great job managing those Cubs pitchers and it’s obvious that Wood and Prior just weren’t cut out to be big league starters.