Tigers Swap?
By Blake VandeBunte • Apr 23rd, 2009 • Category: 2009 Season, Curtis Granderson, Magglio OrdonezYesterday in a comment here, commenter Jackson suggested that the Tigers should consider swapping Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson in the Tigers lineup. That had never occurred to me, but the more I thought about it, the more sense it made.
Magglio has clearly lost some pop in his bat, and I’m not just talking about this season. When he was with the White Sox, one could bank on a healthy Magglio smacking 30 homers a year. Since joining the Tigers, here are his home run totals:
- 2005: 8 (only played in 82 games)
- 2006: 24
- 2007: 28
- 2008: 21
- 2009: 0 (63 plate appearances)
2007 was an outlier in many respects for Magglio since he was just freakishly good. His 21 homers last season were good for fourth on the team.
In addition to having to homers yet this season, all 17 of his hits have been singles. Magglio’s not usually much for triples, but in the past, he’s been one of the premier doubles hitters in the game. He’s been up to the plate 63 times this year and has no extra-base hits. Let that sink in.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “Whoa, Blake. Slow down. It’s only been a few weeks, he’ll come around.” I don’t disagree. I think Magglio is still a fine player, but maybe he is better suited leading off.
Since 2007, only 12 players in baseball have more extra-base hits than Curtis Granderson. Granderson does almost everything at the plate. He’s striking out less, hitting lefties better while still exhibiting the combination of speed and power that make him such a dynamic player.
What if the top of the Tigers lineup looked like this:
- Magglio Ordonez
- Placido Polanco
- Curtis Granderson
- Miguel Cabrera
Last season, Magglio led the American League in grounding into double plays. That means there were roughly 27 occasions where, batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, he took runs off of the bases. In fact, since 2007 Magglio has hit into 50 double plays, topped only by Miguel Tejada. Do we really want a guy so susceptible to the double play hitting in front of one of the greatest run producers in the game (Cabrera)? I vote, no.
We all know Curtis can fly. Since 2007 he has hit into exactly 10 double plays. Speed kills. Magglio has better on base percentage numbers than Granderson and should continue to hit for the higher average. However, Granderson has more pop now than Magglio has. Imagine the kind of damage Curtis could do hitting in that three spot. Magglio and Placido Polanco would hit at the top and get on base for the big bats. It’s not such a bad idea.
I think that Jim Leyland is a bit too old school to ever tinker with something like this. We’ll see.
Thoughts?
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I like where you’re going with this. It obviously makes some sense, given the lack of pop and the double play issues.
It depends … will Magglio actually take a pitch or will Polanco come to the plate with one out and the pitch count at 1?
Good point. Magglio would obviously have to change his approach a little bit. Who knows how that would change his numbers? Still, Leyland has never been much of an innovator, so this is really nothing more than something to talk about.
[...] Leyland would actually try this. What do you think? Sean at Michigan and Trumbull weighed in, too. (Spotstarters) (Michigan and [...]
This may sound crazy, but this is the lineup I think would give the Tigers the best chance to put runs on the board.
1. Josh Anderson
2. Placido Polanco
3. Magglio Ordonez
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Curtis Granderson
6. Carlos Guillen
7. Gerald Laird
8 Brandon Inge
9 Ramon/Everett
Classic speedy leadoff man, lots of power in the middle of the lineup, Miguel gets fewer IBB with Granderson backing hiim.
Interesting idea, Trysdor. I have a bit of a problem putting Anderson at the top. I know he’s been a nice surprise so far this season, but he just hasn’t done it long enough to make me think it’s for real. I mean, he’s 26 years old and has yet to play a full season. If he’s still swinging a hot stick in July, then I think this is a good idea.
I think Granderson is the PERFECT player to hit in front of Cabrera. If he’s on first and Cabrera is up, the pitcher has to split his attention between Granderson/Speed and Cabrera/Power. That’s awesome.
I can see what you mean, but if I were to lead off Anderson, I’d be loathe to put Magglio behind Miguel. That’s the very definition of tailor-made double play right there. I think you need speed at the very top of the lineup, especially with a pair of singles hitters right behind the top guy. Anderson’s lightning quick, even if his stick isn’t as good as it seems right now.
I think you make a great point about the double plays. I hadn’t even thought of that.
In my mind, the decision is not whether to move Granderson to 3rd, it’s whether to move Maggs up to 1st. 50 GIDPs vs. 10 GIDPs over a 2 year span? With Cabrera coming up next in the lineup?
It would be one thing if Granderson was Rickey Henderson…but he’s not. He doesn’t take that many pitches, doesn’t walk that much, and he really could make sense as a #3 hitter.
Of course, maybe we’d be better off with this:
Granderson
Polanco
Inge
Cabrera
Maggs
Ok. Just kidding about Inge, but he does have an OPS over 1.000 right now.
Problem with Anderson: No one’s going to hit into a double play if there’s no one on base in front of them. I don’t have confidence in Anderson being on base enough.
The point overall is that Maggs is probably the least powerful #3 hitter in the major leagues right now. He’s still good. But he’s not a #3 hitter.
I really like the idea of grandy hitting third. What if Inge was to bat lead off, he has some speed and seems to be getting on base and hitting really well right now.
Inge
Polando
Grandy
Miggy
Maggs
Carlos
Laird
SS
OF rotation
Carlos isn’t that much quicker than Maggilo so I dont see why batting him behind Miggy would produce that many more double plays.
I know that it may not provide that much information, but has anyone plugged the 2009 Detroit Tigers lineup into the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Calculator? It would be a fun and interesting excercise. I am at work right now and can’t work on it quite yet, but I will provide the link for it. All you need is the OBP and SLG for each player out of the 9 in the lineup. It will provide data about which lineups will (theoretically) score the most runs and which will score the least. Anyway, check it out. Here’s the link:
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py
Here’s a link to the baseball musings analysis I did. I used current season numbers, so it probably doesn’t mean terribly much, but what can you do?
er whoops
here it is
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Josh+Anderson&OBA0=.455&Slug0=.526&Player1=Brandon+Inge&OBA1=.433&Slug1=.660&Player2=Miguel+Cabrera&OBA2=.508&Slug2=.704&Player3=Magglio+Ordonez&OBA3=.429&Slug3=.321&Player4=Carlos+Gullien&OBA4=.344&Slug4=.308&Player5=Ramon+Santiago&OBA5=.323&Slug5=.414&Player6=Gerald+Laird&OBA6=.391&Slug6=.359&Player7=Placido+Polanco&OBA7=.323&Slug7=.414&Player8=Curtis+Granderson&OBA8=.318&Slug8=.533&Model=0
Nice work, Trysdor. I am finally home, and I decided to do the same thing, but I used the career averages for each player. I am very surprised by the outcome of this. The best lineup, based on the career numbers is the following:
Anderson
Cabrera
Polanco
Ordonez
Guillen
Inge
Granderson
Laird
Santiago
Here’s the link:
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Josh+Anderson&OBA0=+0.372&Slug0=+0.478&Player1=Brandon+Inge&OBA1=+0.306&Slug1=.396&Player2=Miguel+Cabrera&OBA2=.383&Slug2=.543&Player3=Magglio+Ordonez&OBA3=.372&Slug3=.518&Player4=Carlos+Gullien&OBA4=.360&Slug4=.446&Player5=Ramon+Santiago&OBA5=.310&Slug5=.328&Player6=Gerald+Laird&OBA6=.309&Slug6=.382&Player7=Placido+Polanco&OBA7=.349&Slug7=.416&Player8=Curtis+Granderson&OBA8=.349&Slug8=.495&Model=0
I suspect that the real answer lies somewhere in the middle of the two.
Yeah, that analysis doesn’t realize that our dear Magglio’s cleanup days are long, long gone.
In re: to Anderson batting first, there’s no point putting a speedy guy in the 1 spot if he’s not going to get on base to be speedy. At least Maggs takes a lot of walks. Besides, speed is over valued. If you’re thinking he can steal bases, it’s not about speed, it’s about timing. And sure, we can have him lay down bunts and beat it out to first, but I don’t like the idea of giving up outs that easily on the first batter.
Those lineup simulation numbers from Baseball Musings are very cool. However, as someone noted, reality probably rests in the middle of those simulations.
Nice to see so many comments here. Let’s try to keep this rolling.
My lineup would be:
Anderson
Polanco
Granderson
Cabrera
Magglio
Guillen
Laird
Inge
Everett