Experts: Verlander Will Be Fine
By Blake VandeBunte • Apr 20th, 2009 • Category: 2009 Season, Justin VerlanderIn his blog today, Rob Neyer cites some work from FanGraphs about why Justin Verlander’s statistics show that he’ll be just fine this season.
If there’s one pitcher whose results haven’t matched his underlying performance so far, it’s Verlander. If he was a stock, I’d be yelling “Buy! Buy!” like the mad money guy on CNBC. If you play in a fantasy league and the guy who owns Verlander doesn’t read FanGraphs, make a phone call and see if you can buy low. If you’re a Tigers fan who is frustrated by Verlander, have some patience — your ace is back.
Verlander’s walked seven batters in 16 innings, which is just a tad excessive. But if his strikeout rate is up and his fastball speed is up, I have to believe his ERA’s going to come down. Probably way, way down. I don’t know if he’ll ever be the Cy Young winner some of us expected after 2007 — his K/W ratio might never be quite good enough — but Verlander is going to have more good seasons, and this is probably going to be one of them.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs also points out that Verlander has been burned by some suspect defense (thank you, Carlos Guillen) and some bad luck. Verlander’s K rate is way up and that’s usually a good sign.
So, keep an eye on Verlander over his next few starts and see if he starts to right the ship a little bit more. Those first four innings against Seattle last week were outstanding. Hopefully it’s a sign of things to come.
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I think he will be fine. His velocity is back up. The only thing that I don’t like about Verlander is that he is very stubborn. The 5th inning the other day was partially his fault. The first couple of hitters in the inning realized that he was throwing first pitch strikes(mostly fastballs). He could have thrown some offspeed or breaking balls. He was very persistant about sticking to his game plan. He needs to learn how to adjust during the game. And if he cant adjust Knapp or Laird need to make him.
Couldn’t agree more. This is moot now, but did Laird or Knapp ever visit the mound during the fifth inning?
Perhaps we are missing Pudge more than we realize?
Jackson, I hope that’s a joke. Laird has been outstanding so far this season. Pudge was great in 2004-2006 but he has really dropped off since then. It was time for a change behind the plate and Laird’s first two weeks have been close to perfect.
Well said, Blake. Laird’s game-calling and defense have been far above-average, to say the least. He isn’t afraid to actually get in front of a ball in the dirt. As much as I liked Pudge, that aspect of Laird’s game is something that I find quite refreshing.
I was just posing the question. I would rather have Laird, but I did wonder if having Pudge behind the plate made a difference for Verlander. Kenny specifically criticized what I would consider part of Laird’s game-calling above and you agreed.
“The first couple of hitters in the inning realized that he was throwing first pitch strikes(mostly fastballs). He could have thrown some offspeed or breaking balls. He was very persistent about sticking to his game plan. He needs to learn how to adjust during the game.”
Shouldn’t Laird help with that? Maybe. Maybe not. It’s a question worth asking though.
I’d have to go back and look, but I think that Verlander shakes off quite a few pitches. Whereas Porcello didn’t shake Treanor off once the other day against Seattle. Really the catcher just offers suggestions, if Verlander doesn’t like the suggestions, he can shake the catcher off until he gets what he wants. Again, not positive JV does that, but Porcello followed Treanor’s advice the other day and it worked out splendidly.