What Could Have Been: Batters
By Blake VandeBunte • Mar 10th, 2009 • Category: 2009 Season, Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield, Magglio OrdonezDave Dombrowski deserves all the credit in the world for the Tigers success in both 2006 and 2007. He really does. He had a vision and it totally worked. However, over the past few years the guy has handed out some awful contracts. He’s not alone in this, not by a long shot. The Mariners have tossed tens of millions at guys like Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva and have nothing to show for it.
What would things be like in a close-to-perfect world? What if instead of Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis the Tigers had some free agent bargains plugged in there? And…not only would they be cheaper players, they would actually win a game or two. The Minnesota Twins are the kings of this strategy in my opinion. So basically, what if the Tigers were more like the Twins? The Twins spend money when they have to. They have made sure they locked up stars like Joe Nathan, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. They find bargains at most other spots and they are consistently in the playoff chase as a result.
As the Tigers limp through spring training with their weak pitching staff and I limp through spring break at MSU, my mind got to wandering about betters scenarios. I’ll avoid guys on their “rookie deals” because that’s way too easy and not really that fair. The guys I’ll pick here are proven big leaguers making at least $1M a year.
The Reality: Magglio Ordonez. Maggs is a good player. He is also an overpaid player. He will make $18 million this season. He is an average defensive player at best. He can still swing the bat as he is a lock to hit .300 and hit 20 homers. However, in today’s game, 20 homers just doesn’t cut it for a corner outfielder that hits in the middle of the lineup. I know the Tigers had to pay Magglio all of this cash back when they signed him to get him to come to Detroit, but still. As much as we all love Magglio, there has to be a better deal out there right?
The Dream: Brad Hawpe. Hawpe is the right fielder for the Colorado Rockies. Over the past three seasons he has hit at least 22 homers in each year and hit 29 in 2007. He also hit right around .290 over that time period and while he strikes out plenty, he also draws enough walks to offset all of the Ks. Hawpe is only 29 years old and is owed $5.5M in 2009.
The Reality: Gary Sheffield. Sheffield’s contract has been one of the worst in the game over the past two seasons. It will continue to be one of the worst this season and I’m guessing the Tigers would take a bag of balls for him if they could get it. Sheffield is owed $14M in 2009 after hitting .225 last season with 19 homers. I am almost certain the Tigers could get that kind of production out of Mike Hessman at DH if they wanted to give him the at bats. I think Hessman gets money for his meals for compensation and that’s about it. The guy would come cheap.
The Dream: Jack Cust. Cust of the Athletics is the classic Billy Beane player. Sure, he has some “warts”, he doesn’t hit for average and strikes out way too much. However, he is very patient at the plate and hits for power. In 2008, Cust had on on base percentage of .375 (49 points higher than Sheffield, 1 point lower than Magglio) and hit 33 home runs. His 33 homers ranked him sixth in the American League. In 2009, Jack Cust will be paid $2.8M.
The Reality: Carlos Guillen. I love Guillen, but the guy is overpaid. He will make “only” $10M in 2009 but is owed $13M in each of the next two seasons. Guillen is valuable because he can play many positions, but he will likely only play in left field in 2009. He will probably be an average fielder out there and, like Magglio, may not provide a lot of pop from that position.
The Dream: David DeJesus. Most of us are familiar with DeJesus, one of the Royals better hitters. He is versatile and can play all outfield positions with skill. He is also a decent hitter. Last season he reached double digits in both homers and steals. He also hit .307 with a good OBP on top of that. He doesn’t strike out much (71 times last year) and hits from the left side of the plate. He is due to make $3.6 next year.
The Reality: Brandon Inge. Inge is a good fielder. We all get that. Some of us (not me, trust me) just cannot come to terms with how much he struggles at the plate. Inge was one of the worst offensive players in baseball last season. Inge had the lowest batting average in the game last year of all players with at least 400 plate appearances (he hit only .205). Inge is due to make $6.3M this season, a $100,000 raise from last year.
The Dream: Joe Crede. I know, I know. Crede is an injury waiting to happen, right? Crede’s current contract really only pays him if he plays, so that problem is solved. If Brandon Inge gets hurt this season, you better believe he collects his $6.3M. Crede hit 17 homers in only 97 games last season for the White Sox and made the All Star team. If he stays healthy he’s a real bargain and a very good player. I can tell you right now that Crede burns the Tigers on at least one occasion in 2009. He will hit a soul-crushing home run or hit a gapper that will cost the Tigers a game at some point this year. Mark it down. Inge and Crede are each others equal on defense at third and Crede is at least three times the hitter. Crede will make between $2.5M and $4.5M in 2009.
The other Tigers batters have reasonable price tags. Miguel Cabrera is costly, but he is a dynamic young super star. You just have to keep a guy like that. Ditto for Curtis Granderson. Placido Polanco is in the last year of a very reasonable contract.
Tomorrow I’ll take a look at the pitchers. Ugh.
Blake VandeBunte is a posting fiend.
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I agree with Sheff, Guillen and Maggs (I was SURE we’d seen the last of Maggs) but Inge, not so much. One of the spots you can ‘hide’ a poor batter is at 3B and catcher. Inge’s phenomenal defense will lock up that side of the infield, something we only saw occasional flashes of from Carlos. I would have liked a better bat at SS instead of Everett but we’ll see if the “defense makes up for it” argument applies to the other side of the corner or not.
Since you briefly mentioned him, I’d like to see the Tigers re-sign Polanco. I haven’t looked at the coming free agents for the 2009 off-season (if Tim Dierkes/MLBTR even has them up yet) but Polanco had a great 2007 season followed by an average outing last year (with the rest of the lineup). He’s a career .350 OBP with .300 BA, which isn’t exactly horrible in any lineup that doesn’t start with ‘New York’ or ‘Boston’. If he has a 2007-esque year I’d love to see him sign a two year contract into 2011.
Magglio is a bit overpaid, but I will not complain about his contract at all. And though his HR numbers are low, his 2B numbers are high, and I’ll take that tradeoff. Guillen I agree is overpaid, and the others there’s just no question.
Big John, I feel ya. I hope the Tigers can keep Polanco, he’s one of my favorites and is a great ballplayer. I just think he’s going to want/get a lot of cash. The Tigers (and the state of MI) are no position to be offering up any more money. Because the Tigers will be “stuck” with Magglio, Cabrera, Guillen, Inge, Bonderman, Willis, and Robertson, here’s guessing they’ll still be trying to cut payroll. They also have to find money for Verlander as well. Here’s hoping they can pull it off.
Great post. It gets me thinking of the possibilities. I do, however, cringe when I ponder the pitching staff. I’ll look forward to the next post, hoping you and Dave Dombrowski will pull a rabbit out of your hat for the 2009 campaign.
At least we get production and good attitudes out of Guillen and Magglio, but Shef and Brandon have given the team almost nothing for their contracts.
Because Maggs is not a HR guy, he’s undervalued. His good ABs don’t make the highlight shows, but are valuable every game. The fact is, I’m amazed at how often Ordonez has good ABs over the past two years in tough spots…he’s willing to give in and take a ball where its pitched, often DRIVING the ball to right…or turning on a ball if the pitcher makes a mistake inside.
In ‘07, he had the highest average and RBI for a Tiger hitter since 1961…and some folks thought we’d seen the last of him?!?
I won’t go there on Inge, but realistically, you have to appreciate the fact that NO ONE in the league would take him last year as a third baseman when we were giving him away to anyone who would pay the majority of his salary coming off a disappointing ‘07…and he played even worse in ‘08.
You know what, those are all good points about Maggs that I neglected to bring up. Maggs bad deal is the easiest to swallow for me. Then Guillen.
As a brief follow up, consider that Maggs also has the 4th highest OPS in Tiger history, despite not being “great” in 2006 (the year of his walk-off heroics). He’s earned his money, in my view.
Nice job, Blake.